Sunday, May 09, 2010

The desire to predict

The desire to know the future appears to be inherent in human psyche, and sometimes I wonder why.

Think about it. In the run up to the election you get one talk show after another trying to predict who will win and why. Then as soon as the election is over the pundits weigh-in on what the newly elected will do. With any major sporting event, there is a scramble to predict who the winners will be. Many a talk shows start by putting out the question: “so who do you think will win this one”. It is the same with movie or song awards. In the run up to the oscars there is no shortage of wise men and women trying to convince other wise men and women about who they think will win it.

Sometimes, of course, there is a commercial motive to this – such as predicting the stock market, or next year’s sales. But often it is just idle curiosity about the future. Perhaps it is just the case that making predictions is an exciting game with zero risk and limitless variations. As a conversation starter it cannot be beaten. And the human desire for talking incessantly is of course limitless !

As Ford Perfect theorizes about humans in the Hitchhiker’s guide to the Galaxy “If they don't keep on exercising their lips, he thought, their brains start working” ! And the future by its very nature is subject to limitless variations and endless chatter.

One way or the other, I think I can predict safely that predictions will continue well into the future !


  1. hi, you have nice blog.. u can view also mine..

  2. In marketing, predicting the outcomes is just like commercializing the item. They will just hired someone to go for a survey...which consist of 10 people out of 100...or they will survey 10 people out of 1 thousand...and then they will hit the road by saying 70% of the population is using the products.....
    Predicting outcomes is good for the purpose of merchandising the unit. But it doesn't really put you in a commission of 100%. So we end up in probability. So to be exact in each case or to be in good preposition. Use probability. More precise and tested....
    God bless...

  3. I really like the qoute from Hitchhikers, its too true